The Official Weather Forecasting Blog

Does this thing still work?

Ryfly — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 09:08:19 +0000

Hey Folks,

We have a high pressure system in the works for the next week, Highs in the 40’s around Conifer and near 60’s in Denver. I see a couple storm makers on the FAR horizon but i don’t expect much from them at this point.

Stay Tuned in!

Ryan

Good Chance Of Severe Thunderstorms For Sunday

Ryfly — Sun, 12 Aug 2007 02:07:01 +0000

Normally I Don’t predict rain showers simply cause it’s hard to predict. Theres alot of things that have to come together. Normally during the summer, we rarely see organized Low Pressure system so any showers are reliant on Cold Fronts. Cold Fronts help bring instability in the warm and cold air masses which converge at that boundary. Warn air rising over the Cold front will cool and condense making for the good chance of rain. Well a weak but still a cold front is moving in tonight and a slight pressure drop will bring winds out of the east making for a slight upslope flow and some instability. Now this morning, VERY little moisture was flowing up from the south. Actually the air was rather quite dry. But i noticed that during this evening that on the water vapor map that there was a slight surge of Monsoon moisture up from the south. Now if i look at wind maps and the water vapor map, if this holds through tonight and water vapor from the monsoon and some instability from the cold font combine with daytime heating, i think we up in the foot hills could see some heavy duty thunderstorms. But for denver, it’s hard to say if the storms will survive on the dry plains unless the high pressure system moves more east which it doesn’t look like doing. But i think for the mountain towns, a good rain chance will come in tomorrow. But i’ll check in the morning to see if this set up is holding much at all. If it falls apart, there will be no rain and just another hot day.

Heres the vapor Map. Look at the white areas coming up from the South West.

Winter Storm Update 1

Ryfly — Tue, 24 Apr 2007 14:17:19 +0000

Heya everyone. Ok i feel alot better now seeing that what i though the storm was gonna do, is doing what it’s gonna do. I haven’t even checked 9News or any of the news stations so i don’t know what there saying. Ok. There more wrap around moisture still coming through and the Storm has slowed down some giving us the chance of 2 feet of snow and maybe 2 1/2. It’s all a matter of where you are. The Snow will continue to intensify but around tonight it should start to slow down and diminish. I’m gonna guess 2 to 4 inch per hour snowfall rates. Giving us about 12 to 28 inches of snow. But i think on average about 18 to 24 inches should fall up here. The wrap around moisture is also pulling gulf moisture up so snow totals might be a bit higher.

I think 285 will close down today. Schools will all close. And anything else thats open, will close as well.

So is this storm gonna be a dud to? I’m i gonna get this wrong too?

Ryfly — Mon, 23 Apr 2007 21:47:45 +0000

Well, i honestly have gotten it wrong twice so far which is a bad record but i’m right with the NOAA with wrong forecasting. I looked at the maps and have thought about it and don’t see two feet of snow possible. I do know that around morning and afternoon tomorrow it’s gonna REALLY Dump fast. I’m talking 4 inches and hour fast. It’s gonna come quick and i’m pretty sure of that. But i don’t know. I think i’m gonna take a break on this one and let the NOAA handle it about.

I think the Forecasters and Forecasting This Storm Wrong…..

Ryfly — Mon, 16 Apr 2007 23:48:28 +0000

Well, i’ve been keeping a very very close eye on this latest storm. It turning into a very descent Low pressure system and even has enough force to go against the Cornelius effect of the earth already to create strong counter-rotating winds. I’m confused and why Denver is only forecasting rain when i think a good 4 inches will fall in denver and possibly anywhere from 7 inches to a foot could fall up here.

The last what was to be a big storm had much stronger colder air in it than the warm air in New Mexico and Arizona and pushed it’s way more south missing us. This storm, NOT AH BIT. VERY warm over this weekend and a High Pressure system will keep this storm up a little more north like thought and GO right into that sweet spot. It’s not as strong as the last one but i think in the next 12 hours or until tonight, are forecast can CHANGE ALOT!!!!!

The reason, I see Two High Pressure Systems, and the Low Right in between. I also see Gulf moisture STARTING to flow into Texas. Once the Low moves a little more east and the warm air in Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, keep it up north and move it into that SWEET spot, this Low could become very strong and intensify in matter of a few hours. If that Low connects with that Gulf moisture flowing up, something big is gonna happen, and i honestly in my deepest gut think so. I overshot the last one simply because i listen to the News forecasters more than what i felt. Now i’m not listening to them, i’m just looking at the facts, the maps, and i’m making my own judgment off of this. This will be during the night and we won’t know till morning whether i was right or wrong. But i guess will see.

I honestly think this storm will give us anywhere from 7 inches to 14 inches and i really think Denver will at least get 3 inches, but i think Denver will get 5 or so. But i could be totally wrong. So this is just off my gut. Hopefully i got this right.

But if this storm does the same thing as the last one, THEN THE ICE AGE IS REALLY STARTING. LOL

It’s Colorado, I Got it Wrong, We All Got It Wrong..

Ryfly — Sat, 14 Apr 2007 00:16:55 +0000

Ok, i misjudged but i thought what happened would not happen. The cold air from the north was much colder and stronger to sack the Low south so it could keep feeding up on warm air. By 8:00AM the track shifted 200 miles south of the track. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE, AND ERROR in forecasting.

9News, 4News, 7News, Fox News, Me, we all got it wrong and no weather model saw how cold the air was going to be. Cold sir sacked it south. IF the warm air in south like predicted stayed strong and warm, which it got cold, would of kept the storm to the north and us a butt load of snow. But the warm air was not warm enough and let the cold air to sack even farther and where the cold air/warm air boundary, goes the LOW goes.

So, do you guys still like me?

CLASS 8 ALERT!!! THE STORM IS ON!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ryfly — Thu, 12 Apr 2007 03:12:25 +0000

A Major Winter Storm i have concluded is gonna kick us right in the ass. Tomorow Morning is all you got left until late after noon to early evening where the snow Will start to DUMP if it remains on this track. IT”S BIG EVERYONE. A CLASS 8 Alert is moderate to Severe Snowstorm Alert/Heavy Accumaltions 12-18in/ Road Closures to Severe Weather Can Be Expected.

STAY HOME FRIDAY. Don’t GO TO WORK!!! KEEP SAFE. ALOT OF WIND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. THE FRONT RANGE IS GOING TO GET SMACKED BIG TIME!!!!!!!!

STAY TUNED. Between Thursday and Saturday i Will update this BLOG at LEAST 3 times a day.

ANYWAYS HERE IT IS FOLKS!!!! RIGHT IN THAT SWEEEEETTT SPOT!!!

ALERT Update—

Ryfly — Tue, 10 Apr 2007 23:00:09 +0000

This storm is gonna be BIG!!! I don’t think it will be on the scale of the December blizzards but it could come close to it. It’s gonna be centered a bit more north but not much but still grazing in that SWEET Spot of Colorado. I’m guessing Friday, plan on School cancelations, VERY Hazardous roads, and start thinking of starting the weekend a little early. I”m guessing now at least a foot of snow for the foothills but i think it will be more as the storm gets closer. I’ll Keep you guys up to date as this storm. Finally a Big snowstorm again, is on it’s way….

WEATHER ALERT!!!!!! Friday The 13th!!!

Ryfly — Tue, 10 Apr 2007 02:00:09 +0000

Watch out everyone. This morning i received the latest weather maps from my friend at the NOAA. He said this could turn into a April Blizzard. I’ve been tracking this Low since it formed in the Pacific. It’s gonna combine with a Another Low Pressure system in the north and a High Pressure System in Gulf. All these things are good combinations for a strong spring snow storm. Gulf moisture flowing up and that Low getting right into that SWEET Spot. It was only a matter of time. The potential of a strong storm is very great. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a foot of snow and i also wouldn’t be surprised if we only got a few inches. This is a very tricky system. Pressure on those weather stations will continually being go down all week. Don’t expect to feel 60 or 70 degree weather anytime soon.

WEATHER ALERT!!!!! Colorado IS IN FOR A BLAST OF MARCH

Ryfly — Wed, 28 Mar 2007 00:40:18 +0000

Now we on the East Side of the Divide won’t get to much snow but the West of the DIVIDE, OH MAMMAAA. A HUGE Low Pressure system is going to smack Vail, Breck, San Juans with two to three feet of snow is my guess. THIS STORM is gonna kick butt for the snow pack which is in desperate times right now. Around Conifer, i don’t think more than a few inches can be expected and there is the possibility of some significant snow. I’ll keep you up to date on this latest big Weather Maker.